The future direction of global stock markets depends on how Donald Trump now behaves.
Traders are caught in two minds right now — between whether to welcome the promise of new infrastructure spending to drive US growth (a buy signal) or to fear a new outbreak of protectionism and trade wars (a cue to sell).
Mohamed El-Erien, the chief economic adviser at Allianz, just discussed this conundrum on Bloomberg TV.
El-Erien says that if we get the “very gracious Trump, very unifying Trump” of his victory speech, then equity market will be calm and government bond yields will go higher (in anticipation of more borrowing and inflation).
But if we get the “anti-trade rhetoric” of the campaign, then shares will fall.